Bitcoin reaching 20000

Will Bitcoin reach $20k? If yes, when? We take a look at top predictions from crypto heavyweights – and the factors that could cause this cryptocurrency to rise

On 17 December 2017, something magical (and entirely unexpected) happened. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $20,089 after doubling in value over the space of three weeks. Alas, boom quickly turned to bust, with BTC quickly collapsing to $6,400 by the beginning of February.

Despite these setbacks – and many others that have followed – there’s a question that has long lingered in the crypto community and beyond: will Bitcoin reach $20k again?

In this article, we’re going to reveal key predictions. Plus, if these bold forecasts turn out to be true, will Bitcoin rise?

Will Bitcoin go up? Key predictions

According to many crypto enthusiasts, it isn’t a question of will Bitcoin hit $20k… it’s more a matter of how much it will surge after that.

As you can see, there are several crypto executives who are adamant that Bitcoin’s best days lie ahead. They’re convinced that even $20,000 is too conservative a figure, especially given how fiat currencies are constantly devalued by money printing.

One of the boldest predictions comes from Raoul Pal, a Wall Street veteran who used to serve as a hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs. Speaking to Stansberry Research, the CEO of Global Macro Investor said an “enormous wall of money” was going to flood into BTC from institutions as the 2020s progress – prompting him to set a whopping $1m price tag in five years’ time. We’ve already seen big players such as Grayscale Investments and MicroStrategy snap up this cryptocurrency faster than it can be mined – fuelling speculation that it isn’t a matter of will Bitcoin go up, but when.

Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the twins who co-founded the Gemini exchange, have been equally enthusiastic when asked will Bitcoin go up again. Of course, their optimism also lies in how their early adoption of this digital asset transformed them into billionaires. Their case for BTC hitting $500,000 centres on how trillions of dollars in new debt has been created as a result of the coronavirus pandemic – and how the supply of gold is unknown, whereas BTC has a fixed supply of 21 million. This cryptocurrency also has other perks, they wrote, including the fact that it’s portable, prohibitively expensive to counterfeit, and far more divisible.

The pair wrote:

“As it turns out, Bitcoin is better at being gold than gold – and not just incrementally, but by an order of magnitude or 10x better. It is a widely held belief in technology circles that when a product is 10x better than its closest substitute, it will escape its competition. We believe Bitcoin has achieved this.”

Elsewhere, PlanB, the pseudonymous inventor of the stock-to-flow forecast, is adamant that BTC is heading for $100,000 by December 2021 – suggesting that we could also see prices surge to $288,000 between that date and 2024. The analyst’s metric works on the basis that inflation increases as the supply of BTC falls as a result of halving events, the last of which was in May. Although this methodology has won plaudits in some circles, there are a fair number of sceptics too. One executive at the hedge fund Arcane Assets, Eric Wall, has even offered to bet $1m that BTC won’t come within 50 per cent of PlanB’s target range.

Moving on to more conservative estimates, another key question is will Bitcoin rise this year. Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, has repeatedly maintained that this price point is achievable by December – threatening to “hang my spurs” if he’s wrong. (He had predicted BTC would hit $20,000 in 2019, but that didn’t happen.)

The likes of Anthony Pompliano from Morgan Creek Digital Assets, and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone, have said that they believe Bitcoin can surge to six figures in the early 2020s. According to McGlone, BTC “has a history of adding zeros” to its price – and continued momentum is going to be crucial. In October 2020, he wrote:

“The Bitcoin market is too small for many large institutions, including central banks, to add the crypto as part of their holdings, but if the market cap of Bitcoin increases, it becomes increasingly like a digital version of gold.”

Of course, there are sizable numbers of people who argue that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. Several central bankers, such as the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, have warned that people should be prepared to lose everything if they invest in BTC. Meanwhile, Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya, a former executive at Facebook, has said Bitcoin’s price has one of two paths ahead: $1m, or back to zero.

And then there are billionaire investing legends such as Warren Buffett, who argue that Bitcoin has no utility. He has referred to it as “rat poison” in the past and vowed that he will never gain exposure to this digital asset, warning:

“You can’t do anything with it except sell it to somebody else. But then that person’s got the problem.” For him, it isn’t an issue of will Bitcoin go up, it’s the inevitability that someone will be left holding on to a worthless asset."

Crypto advocates dismiss Buffett’s claims as misguided, retorting that gold bars and dollar bills only have worth because people regard them as valuable. 

Will Bitcoin rise again? What history tells us

When examining the question of will Bitcoin keep going up, it’s worth looking at the highs that have been seen in each calendar year since 2015.

As our chart shows, Bitcoin very rapidly made higher highs between 2015 and 2017, but the trend has been in decline ever since the heady days of December 2017, which also coincided with a boom in initial coin offerings.

The highs seen in 2018 were arguably the hangover of the rally that followed the month before. Exactly one year on from the all-time high being set, 17 December 2018, prices were languishing around the $3,250 mark – a staggering fall of 83.8 per cent. But as you can see, they made a dramatic recovery as 2019 got underway.

All eyes now are on the years that lie ahead. November 2020 was significant because of how BTC had managed to reach levels that hadn’t been seen since January 2018. Bitcoin also managed to smash records for the longest time it has ever spent above the $10,000 mark, an all-important psychological milestone. According to Cameron Winklevoss, November also marked the first time in history that Bitcoin had managed to close above $15,000 for at least three consecutive days.

So… what are the factors that will drive Bitcoin up to $20,000 and beyond? Well, as Raoul Pal mentioned, institutional investors are going to be a crucial driver. It’s interesting to note that, in the autumn of 2020, Google search traffic was actually far lower for BTC than it was earlier in the year. All of this suggests that it’s the institutions, and not retail investors, that have been pushing prices upwards.

And another significant milestone to watch out for concerns PayPal rolling out its crypto service, allowing its users to buy and sell digital assets including Bitcoin directly from their account. This could unlock levels of adoption among the masses that haven’t been seen before, and make BTC much more accessible to the public.

Historically, big price moves tend to come 12 to 18 months after Bitcoin’s halving events, which take place every four years. Block rewards were last reduced by 50 per cent in May 2020, indicating that the biggest market drama will happen in the latter half of 2021. Will explosive gains happen for the third time running? Will Bitcoin continue to rise? Your guess is as good as mine.

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